By Camilla Biolcati - Human Security Desk

The hope for a political transition toward civilian rule in Mali, already uncertain, now appears increasingly remote. Ranked 9th on the International Rescue Committee's 2025 Emergency Watchlist, Mali, in a national and regional context of profound insecurity and instability, now finds itself on the brink of renewed unrest.

Amid a protracted humanitarian crisis that has plagued the country for decades, recent steps towards the consolidation of military authority have sparked growing discontent among the population, triggering what observers have described as rare and unexpected mass protests. For many Malians already contending with the rising threat of terrorism, forced displacement, economic hardship, and frequent abuses by military forces, the dissolution of political parties is seen as a significant setback for democratic governance and a further postponement of the much-promised return to the ballot box.

Recent developments and the status of political governance

In a series of rapid developments, Mali’s military government appears to be steering the country further away from a possible return to civilian-led governance. On 13 May, through a presidential decree broadcast on national television, General Assimi Goïta dissolved all political parties and prohibited meetings between political organizations. The decree also repealed the 2005 Charter of Political Parties, a fundamental document for the country's multiparty system that outlined legal guarantees for party formation, political engagement, and public financing. With its abrogation, This move has raised concerns about the future of political pluralism in Mali.

This decision followed the country’s first major anti-government demonstrations since the 2021 coup, which erupted on May 3 and 4, 2025. Just days earlier, on 29 April, a national political conference in Bamako, boycotted by all major political parties, named Goïta president with a renewable five-year term and called for the dissolution of political parties. Malians took to the streets in a rare act of defiance. The protests were significant, especially given that the 2020 mass mobilisations had paved the way for the first coup of that same year.

That initial takeover ousted President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta, but within a year, Goïta had overthrown the transitional civilian leadership, an event widely referred to as a “coup within a coup”. Among the protest movements that had enabled the earlier transition, was the June 5 Movement–Rally of Patriotic Forces (M5-RFP), whose leadership was largely excluded from the first transitional cabinet. In an effort to broaden support, Goïta appointed Choguel Kokalla Maïga, a prominent M5-RFP figure, as prime minister in June 2021. Yet this quickly proved to be a symbolic and strategic gesture, as Maïga had little real power and was eventually removed once his public criticism of the junta intensified.

Maïga's criticism focused partly on the lack of clarity around the end of the transition period. This is not the first time political activity has been suspended near the end of a transition period. The last such suspension occurred in April 2024, when the elections scheduled for the beginning of that year were cancelled with the pretext of maintaining public order. This pattern has led to observations that the military leadership may be seeking to extend its tenure by limiting political engagement. Other demonstrations, initially scheduled for Friday 9 May, were postponed after the junta issued a new decree on 7 May suspending all political activities ‘until further notice’.

Humanitarian conditions between conflict, climate, and governance challenges

Over the past five years of military rule, the country has not only continued to suffer from insecurity and instability, but the worsening of the humanitarian crisis has become stark and widely reported by international organisations. Contrary to the junta’s claims that blame the United Nations peacekeeping mission, MINUSMA, for failures in counterterrorism operations, data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) and the Global Conflict Tracker indicate that attacks by extremist armed groups have doubled since the junta seized power and international peacekeeping forces withdrew.

The 2025 Global Humanitarian Overview estimates that 6.4 million people in Mali are currently in need of humanitarian assistance. According to the latest Displacement Tracking Matrix, at least 378,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs) were recorded as of September 2024, showing an 84% increase from the previous year. Meanwhile, over 819,000 people are expected to face crisis-level food insecurity between June and August 2025, according to ACAPS. Climate change has further intensified these challenges: in 2024, unprecedented severe floods affected an estimated 370,000 people across the country.

The suppression of civic spaces

The humanitarian situation has coincided with increasing restrictions on political and civil rights. Recent actions, including the dissolution of political parties and suspension of political activity, are part of a broader trend of reduced civic space. Since seizing power, the military authorities have systematically restricted civil liberties by banning protests, there have been reports of pressure and harassement on human rights defenders, journalists, and civil society actors.

In 2023, Freedom House classified Mali as “Not Free”, citing serious limitations on political pluralism and civil society, especially due to the country's repeated failure to hold elections, while centralising great power in military hands. The Media Foundation for West Africa reported at least ten cases of harassment or arbitrary arrest of journalists between 2022 and 2024, while Amnesty International, in its latest Annual Report, denounced regular resort to enforced disappearances and unlawful detentions as tools to suppress opposition.

On 9 May 2025, the country’s media regulatory authority banned the French broadcaster TV5Monde, accusing it of making "defamatory remarks" in its coverage of the pro-democracy protests. This followed similar actions against other international media outlets, such as France 24 and Radio France Internationale (RFI), both of which have long been blocked. Journalists working inside the country face similar repression. Alfousseini Togo, for instance, was arrested in April 2025 after publishing a report critical of the Ministry of Justice. He was charged with defamation, disturbing public order, and “undermining the credibility of the judiciary,” and remained in prison until his provisional release on May 12 2025. According to Human Rights Watch, in June 2024, twelve members of the country's main opposition coalition were arrested. Similarly, in December 2024, Ibrahim Nabi Togola, the president of the opposition party New Vision for Mali, was abducted, as was Daouda Magassa in February 2025 a member of the CMSA (Coordination of Movements, Associations, and Supporters of Imam Mahmoud Dicko), which had been dissolved in March 2024.

Conclusion

The latest actions of General Goita's transitional government have raised concerns about the direction of Mali's democratic framework. In line with broader regional developments across the Sahel, the country's trajectory appears to be moving toward a more centralised form of governance, rather than progressing toward an elected civilian administration.

The political transition once promised to Malians is no longer a possibility under the current regime. As the government strengthens its control, concerns have been raised about the implications for key aspects of human security, including freedom, safety, and dignity. The population faces escalating violence, hunger, displacement and economic hardship with no meaningful democratic avenues left to voice their needs. Mali is not only battling worsening insecurity, but also undergoing a systematic erosion of rights that exacerbates the humanitarian emergency. The country's current trajectory, similar to developments in Niger, for example, reflects a regional pattern of military-led governance that presents complex challenges for addressing the needs of citizens and advancing peace and security. Without sustained engagement from regional and international stakeholders, growing public frustration may be met with additional restrictions, potentially intensifying the crisis and limiting opportunities for peaceful political progress.