By Camilla Biolcati - Human Security Desk
One year after the self-proclamation of President al-Sharaa, Syria is taking stock of the new government’s performance. Although the country has not fallen into chaos or civil war, as many feared after the collapse of Bashar al-Assad, it cannot be said that Syria—and above all Syrians—find themselves in a significantly better condition than under the previous dictatorship. If the new president does not ensure security for all Syrians, protecting every minority within the country, this may well mark the beginning of another sectarian-based dictatorship.
From Assad’s Fall to al-Sharaa’s Rise
On 8 December a year ago, after 53 years of Assad's rule, a rebel coalition led by HTS launched an eleven-day offensive that led to the overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad. Leading the rebels was the current self-proclaimed president, Ahmed al-Sharaa of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham—known to most as the former militant al-Jawlani. Over the past year, both his name and his public image have been apparently reshaped. His greatest challenge now is to hold together a country torn apart by civil war and deep internal divisions. HTS itself has fluctuated between affiliation with the Islamic State and al-Qaeda, before shifting from a global jihad ambition to a more local one, driven by nationalist aims and an exclusive focus on Syria, integrating different Islamist movements along the way. From 2017 until last December’s advance on Damascus, HTS positioned itself as the guardian of the Sunni community in Syria against the Alawite regime of the former dictator and its allies. How could such a movement overthrow a dictatorship without letting a deeply fragmented country collapse into chaos under such a slogan? But at the gates of Damascus of Damascus, al-Jawlani chanted: "A Syria for all Syrians.” But has he succeeded?
Syria’s Composition
Syria is described as a mosaic of minorities, with a particularly heterogeneous ethnic-religious composition. A simplified and non-exhaustive breakdown of the country’s main communities shows that around 70% of the population adheres to the Sunni branch of Islam. Approximately 10% are Kurds, the majority of whom are also Sunni. The Alawites, who belong to the Shia branch of Islam, constitute an estimated 10–15% of the population, while Christians of various denominations account for roughly 10%. Among the smaller minority groups are the Druze, who represent about 3% of the population.
What Is at Risk
Rebuilding Syria: pluralism, human rights and the human security challengeDespite the challenges inherited from decades of dictatorship and civil war, al-Sharaa has shown the capacity to pull Syria out of international isolation, attracting investment and recognition. Yet foreign relations and diplomacy are not the only concern. For months, leading Middle East analysts have been watching the fate and security of the population. The foundations on which Syria can—and must—be rebuilt are pluralism, inclusivity, and tolerance, particularly through the protection of human rights. This represents the new leader’s core challenge. Several atrocities have been documented in recent months, with the country’s major minority communities suffering severe attacks and massacres. According to ACLED reporting, around 60% of victims in armed confrontations belong to the Druze and Alawite communities.
March 2025 – The Alawite Massacre
From the day after Assad’s fall, clashes described by the transitional government as “individual cases” of revenge killings against members of the Alawite minority have persisted. Resentment toward Alawites runs high among many Syrians who perceive them as responsible for decades of oppression. Members of this community have repeatedly reported feeling under threat, accusing the new government of being unable—or unwilling—to protect them. Since February 2025, Amnesty International has recorded numerous reports of disappearances, abductions, and kidnappings of Alawite women and girls, calling on authorities to intervene.
Between 6 and 9 March 2025, the deadliest confrontation since al-Sharaa’s rise to power broke out, drawing harsh criticism from the international community and rights organisations. The violence appears to have started with an ambush targeting Syrian security forces and military checkpoints in north-western Latakia province, where government troops had been deployed for a "security campaign” aimed at suppressing Assad-loyalist rebels. The government response triggered a cycle of violence which, according to independent Reuters investigations and ACLED data, saw clashes across at least fifty locations in the governorates of Latakia, Hama, Homs, and Tartus. The response was described as brutal and disproportionate: according to an investigative commission, around 200,000 fighters from various military factions were mobilised to the coastal front, resulting in violations, abuses, extrajudicial killings, and disappearances. According to The Syrian Network for Human Rights, the units considered responsible for most killings included two factions previously affiliated with the SNA and under U.S. sanctions for human rights abuses. The confrontation escalated into a sectarian conflict which, according to SNHR and SOHR investigations, caused around 2,000 deaths, mostly Alawite civilians. Subsequent independent investigations, including joint work by Human Rights Watch, Syrians for Truth and Justice,and Syrian Archive, documented, through interviews and verified video footage, the complicity of forces under the Ministry of Defence in the atrocities, humiliation, and reprisals carried out by fighters. Testimonies also pointed to the recruitment of civilian volunteers not associated with militias to join the campaign, further demonstrating the government’s inability, or unwillingness, to control the use of force. Throughout these events, al-Sharaa continued to call for national unity, promising the creation of an independent committee to investigate civil rights abuses and identify perpetrators. Initial findings, however, claimed that military commanders had not ordered violations, fueling anger among the Alawites. The UN Commission of Inquiry on Syria later recognised the involvement of segments of interim government forces and urged authorities to identify and prosecute those responsible.
July 2025 – Sectarian Violence in Suwayda
Only a few months later, in July 2025, another major eruption of violence broke out in the southern province of Suwayda, involving the Druze minority and Bedouin armed groups reportedly supported by government forces. The escalation followed months of latent tensions and clashes, which, according to ACLED, amount to nearly 133 recorded incidents between January and July 2025. On 13 July, after a wave of retaliatory kidnappings between Druze and Bedouin tribes, violence intensified dramatically. In just two weeks, reports documented 95 incidents, more than 800 casualties, and hundreds of displacements. Government forces intervened, claiming to be restoring order, but the operation instead deepened insecurity within the Druze community, which accused the military of taking sides with Bedouin groups. In the aftermath of the first ceasefire, Al-Sharaa himself publicly praised Bedouin involvement in restoring calm in the southern province against outlaw armed groups, a statement that sparked strong feelings of injustice within the Druze community and renewed fears of being not only unprotected by the state, but also directly targeted. Video and photographic evidence also suggests the involvement and incitement of hatred by transitional government forces against the Druze community.
This intervention is part of a strategy aimed at centralising state power and challenging local militias and governorates in Syria that want to preserve their autonomy. In March, the president signed a temporary Constitutional Declaration that immediately drew criticism and concern from the country's minorities because it did not reflect ethnic and religious diversity or the autonomy of the country's numerous governorates. In light of this, it is clear that abuses, reprisals and violations of humanitarian law are distancing President Al-Sharaa from his goal of unifying Syria into a free and safe Syria for all and winning the trust of its citizens.
The need for Justice, and Minority Protection: Syria’s Crossroads
These two major episodes of violence—along the coastal region and later in Suwayda—serve as stark warning signs of the concrete risks posed by the transitional government’s current security approach for civilians, particularly minority communities. Syria remains a deeply fragmented society, where the idea of centralised authority recalls patterns of oppression typical of the previous dictatorship. It is therefore unrealistic to assume that regime change, especially if it brings a specific niche to power, would not provoke fear and insecurity among those who could once again be marginalised and oppressed. Analysts observing Syria’s fragile transition have repeatedly highlighted this dynamic.
The core challenge for the government of transition is to demonstrate the political will and capacity to integrate all of Syria’s diverse social, ethnic, religious groups into the political and security architecture of the state.Without an inclusive governance and security framework, existing sectarian rifts are likely to deepen rather than heal. Observers have stressed that prioritising domestic credibility and reducing sectarian tensions are essential if the transitional authority is to build trust across the population. Minority inclusion has internal and external dimensions: internally, ending cycles of revenge violence and ensuring accountability are crucial to preventing further retaliation and mistrust; externally, it is important to recognise the risk of regional powers exercising influence at the expense of minority communities.
In conclusion, despite the establishment of commissions tasked with judging and prosecuting violations committed during the Assad era and the massacres of recent months, these bodies have so far proved ineffective and inconsistent, making it necessary to guarantee transparency and impartiality in future trials. An accountable transitional justice mechanism is essential to overcoming the trauma of centuries of abuse and to laying the foundations for reconciliation and, potentially, peace. Secondly, the development of a decentralised and pluralistic security system, as recommended by experts, would help mitigate the risk of further clashes such as those in March and July 2025 and could provide a more solid basis for national reconciliation. Finally, greater political integration, including all minorities within the governmental and constitutional structures of the country, must be accompanied by recognition of the need for decentralisation and a degree of autonomy for minority groups.