Author: Carlotta Rinaudo - China & Asia Team
For years, people could only travel between the two islands by ferry. On one side of the shore stood Malรฉ, the capital of the Maldives, a bustling urban hub and a sensory feast in itself, with its markets bursting with colors, exotic fragrances, and the lively chatter of fishermen displaying their daily catch. On the opposite shore lay Hulhumale, an artificial island hosting modern residential facilities and the Maldivesโ international airport. Connecting these two islands was vital for daily life, yet the ferry system often proved inadequate to its task โ especially during peak hours, when tourists and locals alike had to endure endless queues under the tropical sun.
Things were to change when Abdulla Yameen was elected President in 2013. The half-brother of Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, often referred to as the โdictatorโ of the Maldives, Yameen had ambitious plans for his island nation. Through a development initiative known as โGreater Maleโ he aimed to elevate Malรฉ, Hulhumale, and other neighboring islands into a modern hub with upgraded infrastructure, housing, and public services. But this grand vision faced a major obstacle. In 2011 the Maldives had lost its Least Developed Country (LDC) status, which meant that the island could no longer attract funds through international aid. With this avenue closed, Yameen had no other choice but to seek an alternative source of investment. Enter China.
Those were the times President Xi Jinping had started to promote the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), whose goals largely aligned with Yameenโs vision. It did not take long for Yameen to travel to Beijing, praise China as one of the Maldivesโ โclosest friendsโ andย join the BRI. Nor did it take long for Chinese companies to establish their presence in the atolls: through Chinese loans, they built 11,000 high-rise buildings in Hulhumale, expanded the Velana International Airport, and extended the local electricity grid. Then cameย the Friendship Bridge. Built by China Harbor Engineering Company (CHEC), it crossed over 2km of turquoise waters to connect Malรฉ and Hulhumale, facilitating the flow of people and resources at a rapid pace. Commuters no longer needed to endure endless queues during peak times. ย

The conversation around these megaprojects, like any debate surrounding the BRI, quickly became sharply polarized. While some glorified the megaprojects as examples of โwin-win cooperationโ, many others disagreed. Given Malรฉโs significant debt to China, they argued that this scenario represented yet another example ofย debt trap diplomacy, where Beijing strategically pushes recipient countries into debt to then seize control over their assets. Similar claims have emerged in neighboring Sri Lanka, where Chinese-funded projects led to repayment challenges, eventually culminating in theย transfer of the Hambantota portย to China. However, simplifying the BRIโs presence in the Maldives to a dichotomy of โwin-win cooperationโ versus โdebt trap diplomacyโ is problematic. One only has to explore the urban center of Malรฉ to discover a more nuanced reality. Here, the discontent among the local population towards their ruling รฉlite highlights another crucial yet neglected actor in the BRI: the political leadership of the recipient country. That is, Chinese investors do not operate in a vacuum, but within a context where local politicians are active players rather than passive recipients of debt. In the case of the Maldives, the ruling class functions more likeย a cabal of corrupt politiciansย feeding a patronage-based system, and taking every megaproject as an opportunity for personal gain. โIt is not really about China pushing the country into debt. It is more about our political class using foreign investors to satisfy their own thirst for cashโ, says a local resident who spoke under the condition of anonymity. Take the above-mentioned Friendship Bridge. Initially proposed as a six-lane bridge connecting Hulhumale and Malรฉ at a cost of around $100 million, it was later downsized to four lanes under Yameenโs administration. Despite the reduction in size, the cost of the project wasย doubledย to almost $200 million. โThe government initially promised a bigger bridge but later built a smaller one. They then inflated the contract value, pocketed the excess funds, and eventually left our Chinese creditors unpaidโ explains the local resident.

Parallels can be drawn with the Hambantota Port. Here, a consultancy group estimated that constructing a bunkering facility would cost around $33 million, yet the Ports Minister demanded a $100 million loan. In both cases, the contracts were significantly inflated, allowing surplus cash to clandestinely find its way into the pockets of the ruling รฉlite โ Yameenโs inner circle in the Maldives, and the Rajapaksa family in Sri Lanka. Presently, Maldivian officials struggle to ascertain the exact amount of debt owed to China and are actively seeking to renegotiate interest rates and repayment plans. Meanwhile, President Yameen was arrested on corruption charges. This only highlights the importance of not overemphasizing Chinaโs control over its projects abroad - it is equally vital to scrutinize the role of the host countryโs political leaders, as they too significantly influence the nature of the BRI.
China is not alone in funding a construction boom in this small yet strategically positioned island nation. India, viewing the Maldives as part of its traditional sphere of influence, is alsoย fundingย various megaprojects to steer the island away from the Chinese orbit โ and back to its own: hospitals, cricket stadiums, ports and airports, and even a sea bridge connecting Malรฉ to other islands in the West, surpassing the Friendship Bridge in both length and scale. Caught in between this geopolitical rivalry, the Maldivian political รฉlite has attempted toย capitalizeย on both Chinese and Indian investments to amass even more personal wealth, leading to rampant and unprecedented construction activity. Airports are being built on islands where only 800 people live, making people question if these developments are really necessary. Needless to say, this is a game with few winners and many losers.ย
โThe problem is that this construction boom simply does not fit the Maldivian realityโ explains another local resident. โAll this dredging activity is damaging our coral reef, which is our primary defense from rising sea levels. Yet we continue to destroy it with unnecessary construction projects. Meanwhile, our leadership gains illegal money, while greater powers fight their own geopolitical game on our sovereign territoryโ. Today, ordinary Maldivian citizens are burdened with debt and environmental devastation. Their nationย owesย at least $1.4 billions to Beijing โ yet unofficially this figure might go as high as $3.5 billions, which accounts for 70% of their GDP. In addition, being the lowest-lying country in the world, many parts of the Maldives could sink by the end of this century, posing anย existential threatย to its inhabitants.ย

During the Third Belt and Road Forum in October 2023, President Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of fighting corruption associated with the Belt and Road Initiative. Premier Li Qiang echoed this commitment, stating that Beijing was committed to achieve aย โclean Silk Roadโย devoid of graft. Yet ensuring a corruption-free Silk Road also necessitates more oversight over recipient countries, as they play a crucial yet underestimated role inย determiningย the inclusivity and sustainability of BRI projects. Beyond simplistic notions of โwin-win cooperationโ versus โdebt trap diplomacyโ, the reality of the BRI is characterized byย top-down decision-making, secretive negotiations, and limited public involvement. This only perpetuates a cycle of patronage, profit-seeking, and personal interests โ all at the expense of human needs. Similar to the Sri Lankan experience, for the Maldivian population the true trap might not be that of Chinese investments - but the rule of a dysfunctional political leadership.ย



















